Poll: Obama Holds Big Lead Among Young Voters

Democrat Barack Obama holds a wide lead over rival, Republican John McCain, when it comes to voters 18 to 24 years old, according to a new poll commissioned by Harvard University's Institute of Politics (IOP).

Obama maintains a solid, 23-point lead among likely young voters over McCain, an announcement of poll results says.

Heading into the Democratic convention, Obama leads McCain, 55 percent to 32 percent -- with 13 percent undecided, IOP says. IOP says this lead is virtually unchanged since its last poll, which was conducted in the spring, before the Democratic nomination was settled.

This findings of this poll could be significant because Obama and his campaign have put much stock in counting on a base of young voters to win in November. Young voters, however, often do not show up at the polls as reliably as their older counterparts, however.

IOP says that to put its latest poll into context, its polling from the 2004 election cycle showed then-candidate John Kerry with a 13-percentage point (52 percent-39 percent) lead among college students in the month leading up to the election. According to exit poll results, Kerry won the total youth vote (18- to 29-year-olds) in 2004, by a 9-point margin, 54 percent-45 percent.

Harris Interactive conducted this most recent poll, including 1,031 18- to 24-year-olds interviewed online between July 28 and Aug. 12, IOP says.

IOP says that the major objective of its latest study was to measure the attitudes of young voters related to election preferences and understand how they plan to engage during each of the conventions. According to the U.S. Census, there are approximately 25.5 million 18- to 24-year-old citizens in the United States today.

Obama's strongest level of support in the poll comes from African-Americans (93 percent-3 percent), Democrats (88 percent-3 percent), independents (62 percent-13 percent) and young voters from the East Coast (68 percent-22 percent). Among men he leads 53 percent to 34 percent; among women 58 percent to 30 percent -- and among Hispanics/Latinos by 12 points (49 percent-37 percent).

More than three-in-five young voters are excited about the election and nearly half of likely voters interested in volunteering on a campaign, the IOP poll finds.

Overall, 62 percent of young voters report that they are excited (23 percent very excited, 39 percent somewhat excited) about the upcoming election, including 69 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds currently in college. Among those not on a college campus, 59 percent say that they are excited about the election.

In addition to the current gap in the horse race, a significant "enthusiasm" gap exists between Obama and McCain supporters on this issue, IOP says. Slightly more than four-in-five (83 percent) young voters planning to vote for Obama say that they are excited about the election this fall, which is 27 percentage points higher than McCain's supporters (56 percent). It should be noted that 44 percent of Obama supporters say they are "very excited," while only 11 percent of McCain supporters say the same, according to IOP.

Some 68 percent of all young female voters say they are excited (56 percent of male voters), 74 percent of African Americans, 64 percent of young Hispanic/Latino voters and 60 percent of young Born Again Christians are excited about the election this fall.

In politics, excitement often translates into engagement and this is most certainly the case for both Obama and McCain supporters this year. A slight majority of Obama's supporters (51 percent) indicate that they were interested in volunteering (12 percent very interested) on the campaign and 39 percent of McCain's supporters said the same (13 percent very interested). These numbers translate to hundreds of thousands of potential volunteers for both campaigns -- ready and willing to engage if asked, IOP reports.

IOP also says its poll finds McCain and Obama in virtual tie on readiness to be
commander-in-chief and the terrorism issue; while Obama considered more likely to bring change, improve U.S. image abroad and improve the economy.

In addition to finding solutions for the economy (39 percent report this as the most important issue facing the country), the situation in Iraq (15 percent), health care and immigration -- IOP says its previous quantitative and qualitative research sayss that young voters also seek a president who can change Washington and improve the country's image abroad.

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